November 20, 2009 – 8:04 am
Swamplot’s chart-wielding analyst is back with a few comments on the Houston Association of Realtors’ latest report and media push:
Median and average home sales prices fell $7,200 from the prior month. This was including increased activity to get the $8,000 home buyer tax credit in under the wire! Now it is not fair to compare month to month numbers as seasonal factors are working against the housing market this month.
So we get some good spin from the realtors: “Home prices up 5%” “Sales up 13.8%” …this maps directly over to the mainstream press with no research: “Home sales rise for second month,” “Home prices up 5%,” “Sales up 13.8%” Homeowners in this town should be proud that such a hardworking PR machine still gins out great product!
Why would you call those year-over-year increases spin?
The realtors get to make a press release every month and every month something is a “record” and the press is under deadlines and it gets copied in verbatim. This is home prices up 5% and sales up 13.8% from HURRICANE IKE with no caveat in the headline going out to 200,000 print readers and as many web readers! Not bad for a days work.
Oh, yeah. Forgot about that whole Ike thing. So what’s the market looking like really?
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Read more about: Disaster Aftermath, Forecasts, Foreclosures, Houston Data, Hurricane Ike, Memorial, Price Trends
October 20, 2009 – 5:32 pm
HAR is out with its September home-sales figures, giving Swamplot’s spreadsheet-side correspondent a chance to eulogize the spring-summer selling season:
Home prices and volumes are flying south for the winter. With this volume downturn for the year, we have most likely seen the highs and sales volumes will now complete their third year of contraction. Prices were down 2-3% in the month, depending on whether you follow the median price or the average price. Pending sales are well below sales for the month, suggesting a further seasonal contraction in October.
This month featured an upturn in foreclosure sales as a percentage of the total. Foreclosure sales were 18.6% up from 16.7% the prior month. Luckily, foreclosure sales are still way down from the 32% peak in January.
But aren’t all those foreclosures going away soon?
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Read more about: Buying and Selling, Forecasts, Foreclosures, Home Prices, Houston Data, Price Trends
August 19, 2009 – 12:39 pm
HAR’s real estate sales report for July is out! And Swamplot’s housing-market reader-analyst uses the data to piece together a better picture of Houston’s still-somewhat-mysterious foreclosure scene:
The press releases in 2009 have included a running commentary on the % of foreclosure sales in the month. This month’s release featured an interesting nugget — foreclosure sales from the prior year’s month! It is new information, and a few future monthly releases of it will allow us to fill in the data gap in the graph [above].
The foreclosure graph can be looked at in two ways. The glass half full crowd can cite the fact that a wave of foreclosures has been passed through the system — like a painful kidney stone — and it hasn’t led to piles and piles of unsold homes on top of each other in a negative feedback loop. Inventory is down to 6.5 months, backing this view.
And what if you aren’t sure there’s enough water in that glass to, uh . . . pass those stones?
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Read more about: Buying and Selling, Forecasts, Foreclosures, Home Prices, Houston Data, Price Trends
“The increase in local unemployment reported this week is sickening,” reports Swamplot’s local financial correspondent. But don’t the latest HAR numbers show Houston home prices at some sort of record high?
Historically, the peak for home prices comes in July or August every year. The increase in the median and average over the past several months has been due to two factors. First, seasonality –summer prices are always the highest. Second, a change in the “product mix” of Houston homes –the % of foreclosed homes has fallen every month for several months straight . . . So the change in the product mix means that the value of any given house probably has not risen, only a change in the product moving through the system is reflected in the numbers.
Is it okay to get excited about the foreclosures, then?
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Read more about: Buying and Selling, Forecasts, Foreclosures, Home Prices, Houston Data, Price Trends
A broker tells reporter Amy Wolff Sorter that no new multifamily apartments — beyond the 14,000 units currently “in the pipeline” — are likely to be built in the Houston area until 2012. MPF Research says the multifamily occupancy rate for this area is hanging at around 89.7 percent, not too far from where it was last year: “. . . rents continue to hold steady and concessions aren’t being jacked up in response, though they do exist. [MPF's Greg] Willett points out that about 38% of the product on the market today has some sort of concession, with the typical giveaway hovering at a 9% discount, which translates to a little more than one month of free rent. Still, ‘that really hasn’t moved,’ Willett remarks. ‘We’ve been at that 9% figures for awhile.’ Both [Apartment Realty Advisors' Matt] Rotan and [CB Richard Ellis's Craig] LaFollette say that the infill locations are faring better than the outer submarkets, which are giving away up to two months free rent.” [Globe St.]
Read more about: Apartments, Forecasts, New Construction: Residential, Renting
More comments on Greenwood King’s April market report, which focuses on real estate activity in Houston’s higher-end neighborhoods. A second reader focuses on prices, determined to find storm clouds in the report’s silver lining:
While some avg. sales prices are higher, this is most likely due to builders no longer buying lots to build on for b/t 400 and 500k.
Last week you had a poster ask to see the evidence of price declines and an eroding market. Here is further evidence of a declining market. Moreover, the poster requested to see comps that show declines. I think I have proof. Can we get a Realtor to confirm that a prime West U. property–3128 Lafayette–sold for 700,000 over two years ago and now has been recently reduced to 699,000. Welcome back to 2007–[how] much further do we have to go?
One problem with finding these declining comp examples (and I think there are more, and more on the way), is that the Realtors control all of the data and are reluctant to admit that the prime inner loop area that has been so good to them is begining to substantially turn negative.
Photo of 3128 Lafayette St. in West University: HAR
Read more about: 77005, Buying and Selling, Forecasts, Homes for Sale, Houston Data, Price Trends, West University
Enjoy your spring, everyone! Armed with a few pointed charts fueled by the latest data from HAR, Swamplot’s spreadsheet-wielding correspondent writes in again, this time with comments on March’s residential real-estate market report:
The Realtors always speak breathlessly of the “Spring Selling Season” with an almost religious reverence. Well it shows in the data. Home sales are 60-100% higher in the warm weather months. Prices are 10-20% higher, too. . . .
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Read more about: Buying and Selling, Economic Conditions, Forecasts, Houston Data, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
Looks like HAR has responded to some Swamplot reader criticism and added a bit of needed real estate to the bottom of the charts in its latest report — as well as a thin white line to indicate actual, non-adjusted values. The changes and the addition of the latest numbers show a market that doesn’t seem quite so steady as last month’s HAR report made it seem.
There were 25.9 percent fewer property sales this February than last, according to the report. But our reader’s 3-month-moving average chart doesn’t look any worse than last month:
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Read more about: Buying and Selling, Forecasts, Houston Data, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
February 25, 2009 – 9:52 am
A reader writes in to poke fun at a few “awfully massaged” charts included in last week’s monthly MLS report from the Houston Association of Realtors, calling them “the unintended consequences of crazy average-it-all-together-to-create-a-veneer-of-stability reporting”:
….the latest monthly sales numbers for single family and condo/townhomes are ACTUALLY OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE CHARTS!!
HAR’s sales-volume charts show 12-month moving averages, but even that isn’t enough to keep the latest numbers from dropping through the floor:
The unintentional comedy arises from the fact that the latest values very prominently highlighted in the boxes (2,827 & 203) are well below the scale on either of these sales volume graphs. . . .
It also reveals WAAY TO MUCH data smoothing on their part which calls into question their credibility. Their charts convey almost no information -on purpose.
Okay, but if you’ve got any actual information to share, break it to us gently, please:
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Read more about: Buying and Selling, Forecasts, Houston Data, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
December 10, 2008 – 9:19 am
“Harris County foreclosures totaled 11,837 in 2008, up 0.6 percent from 11,766 during the prior year, according to The Woodlands-based Foreclosure Information & Listing Service. The figures represent foreclosed homes up for sale on the first Tuesday of each month at the courthouse. The next auction won’t be until January. . . . Foreclosures had made double-digit percentage gains in the prior two years. But they began to moderate toward the end of 2008 because the now government-controlled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac halted foreclosure sales between Nov. 26 and Jan. 9. Also, earlier in the year, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development put a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures in areas affected by Hurricane Ike. Additionally, lenders typically hold off on foreclosures during the Christmas season, adding to the slowdown, said Michael Weaster, an agent who specializes in selling foreclosed properties for banks. ‘Nobody wants to look like ogres during the holidays,’ Weaster said. ‘So what we’ve got in the pipelines is significant.’” [Houston Chronicle]
Read more about: Forecasts, Foreclosures
December 1, 2008 – 2:45 pm
A Swamplot reader requests a long hard look at the Houston housing market crystal ball: “Do any ‘experts’ lurking among Swamplot’s readership have any thoughts on long-term residential price trends in Houston? Me and the missus were trying to sell our home in Vegas (good house, great neighborhood, bad timing). Now we will be holding on to it until the Vegas market starts coming back — whenever that is. I’m trying to get an idea on what prices could look like when we finally have the funds to buy locally (6 months - 1 year, depending). Any info or sites that might help us answer those questions would be greatly appreciated.” [Swamplot inbox]
Read more about: Forecasts, Homebuying, Houston Data, Price Trends
Comment of the Day: Where the Skyscrapers Will Be Built
“. . . in a century or two, Houston will be very densely populated. . . . I think Houston is relatively lucky to have street grids across most parts of the city, as opposed to the suburban lollipops in, say, Pearland’s newer subdivisions. When the skyscrapers come — and they will — then Houston’s grids will handle the load better than the lollipops would; and if worse comes to worse, old blocks can be razed for new streets, or our existing streets can be turned into one-way, so that for example you might have Bellaire and Westheimer only go westbound, and Richmond and San Felipe only eastbound (or vice versa).” [J.V., commenting on City to Ashby Highrise: Yes You Can!]