You actually believe that? To me, all three cable news channels are quite a load of crap with MSNBC being the worst. Obviously newspapers are worthless. The best coverage of any US news is coming from the UK papers (not BBC though).

Anyway as with all information from any source, blanket trust should never be used. The MLS, although comprehensive, can have errors because humans are behind it. Now, it doesn’t mean that every entry is flawed to push some kind of misinformation. If it was, that would break as a story eventually.

Not all homes in River Oaks are sold on the open market through the friendly neighborhood Realtor. Some are sold by the friendly family attorney. And there have been some “pre-foreclosures” sold already there and in Tanglewood and Memorial. If you have a $2 million loan you need to cover on a $3 million home and have a “willing buyer” a friend introduced you to who has $2 million in cash, you are going to sell the home - your loan is paid off, your credit is intact and best of all you didn’t have to cough up $120,000 in commission to a Realtor out of your dwindling capital. Pity the poor person who finds out they paid $3.5 million for their house and the next door neighbor only paid $2 million even though it’s bigger. It is happening here.

As for other markets not having any relevance to the market here, the effect of the collapsing economy is merely being seen first in other markets. A number of homes in these other markets, Los Angeles and New York in particular, have been sold through “pocket listings” which means the listing broker brings the buyer and if the broker wants to co-op the sale, the broker pays the other broker out of his commission which usually doesn’t happen because there is no MLS and no advertisement allowed. Word of mouth or your own customers only. Some simply don’t want just anyone schlepping through their living rooms with the Picassos on the walls but some simply don’t want anyone to know they’re selling and wondering if they’re selling because they need to. Which most are. Rumor is some brokers here have begun to take “pocket listings” despite their always having refused to. Until now. The “pocket listings” tend to bring a better price but in this market if the house is priced for a “willing buyer” rather than the market itself it sits there. Along with everything else. There has been devaluation in our market. Some refuse to accept that. Including many of the friendly neighborhood Realtors.

The difference between a $500,000 house and a $750,000 house is $15,000 in commission. If you’re a good agent and tend to sell your own listings, you are going to try to make that extra $15,000. If and when you sell the $500,000 house for $750,000.

People have been paying too much for their homes in our city the past five to ten years. The Realtors loved it. As did HCAD. Reality is reality. And eventually reality will hit the Inner Loop although to a degree it already has. It just hasn’t hit the Realtors or their sellers who can’t figure out why their house is still sitting there in this market that’s still so wonderful according to their Realtors.

Bellaire may not be Bel-Air but the reality is the same. And the reality is it ain’t worth what is was worth a year ago. Just as the $7,500,000 home in Bel-Air ain’t worth it, the $750,000 home in Bellaire ain’t worth it. Unless you find a fool who doesn’t know better.

Unless something has changed, the MLS figure is the figure reported to MLS. Not verified by MLS. You figure it out.

People can watch trends and predict something is near or past, but rarely has anyone predicted the peak or bottom.

Historically, it takes about 2 years for most markets to recover from a housing bottom, but that isn’t set in stone. Some markets rotted away (Detroit) and some markets just flattened out (one prediction for Houston).

Houston having a flat market for a while is not necessarily a bad then. It could be a prolonged bottom.

The HOUTX market shows many indicators of a peaking market. It’s naive to believe that the local market will remain in a vacuum of a deteriorating economy, and widely declining RE marketplace. This is just the leading edge. Any decline or collapse is just gathering momentum. Buckle up!

However, the regional numbers are only interesting from the macro view. North
Katy has very little in common with North Boulevard.

I strongly believe that solid, close-in
properties will suffer only a small dip
and a rebound as the recession runs its course. I also believe that Houston will suffer only a fraction of the damage that we see/will continue to see in the wildly overbuilt regions.

Inside-The-Loop-Houston has some of the best fundamentals in the country, bar none (no giant $ runup, OK economy w/giant health care segment, low home cost as % of personal income, high % of properties NOT financed w/liar, etc. loans, consolidation of energy staffing to Houston, vibrant port and more).

Almost without exception, close-in Houston homeowners are among the most fortunate in the nation - possibly the world - as we all muddle through the real estate bubble.

Historically, prices are driven by the labor market. Many employers are downsizing and no offering raises to their employees. There are hiring freezes at many of the area’s largest employers. So who is going to buy these expensive homes?