Houston-Area Population Will Break 10M by 2040, Says METRO Study

HOUSTON-AREA POPULATION WILL BREAK 10M BY 2040, SAYS METRO STUDY Making it more peopled than 40 different states are right now. Granted, the “Houston area” that METRO’s study encompasses — defined as Harris, Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties — already spans more land than 4 states. The full breakdown on the transit agency’s website features more maps like the one above — on which more populous areas appear darker — showing 2025 estimates and historical data for years past. The area’s current population: somewhere around 6 million, according to census data. [METRONext] Map of Houston area’s estimated population distribution in 2040: METRONext

7 Comment

  • These studies always miss the boat on the climate change–I’d be surprised if population growth in Houston and surrounding area hasn’t plateaued and maybe even begun to decrease by 2040.
    Let me put it this way–if even the most conservative projections are correct, I wouldn’t want to be living here then. If you think the flooding and the summer temperatures are bad now…

  • Eh, I wouldn’t be that concerned about climate change. Any increase in flooding would be a sign of increased rainfall, which would cool down the summer temperatures.

    If anything, climate change would make Houston weather more Hawaii like.

  • climate certainly will play a role in Houston’s population, climate will also play a role in the population of places like Corpus Christi, Galveston, etc. cities that are built feet above sea level.
    Residents of those cities will have no choice but to trade in their cars for boats, or move. Houston is in a comfortable location in regards to sea level rise. In the next 20 years, while tides and ground water will be a problem for places like Galveston and other low lying areas, Houston will just keep on keeping on.
    In 100 years from now, Houston will be closer to the gulf, the pleasure pier will be closer to making the transition from entertaining humans to entertaining fish. People who get shifted out of those locations will have to go somewhere. Many will come here.

  • More like central Yucatan than Hawaii ….. hot and steamy all the time

  • Most climate scientists think the average global temperature has gone up about 0.8 degrees Celsius (or about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1880. Extrapolating to 2040, that is less than 0.2 additional degrees Celsius. Won’t be that much hotter.


  • I’d bet $20 our population is greater than 6 million now. I’m pretty sure there were 6 million people on 59HWY today at rush hour. Sincerely tho, how do they begin to count the undocumented population in the area? Or
    even the recent inbound populations from other states? With census data collected only every decade, and Houston growing at such a head-spinning rate, I’m amazed that demographers can begin to predict what the city will be like next year, much less in 2040.