COMMENT OF THE DAY: HOUSTON HAS NO TIME FOR THE PAST “Houstonians do not look back at the past. They are so intent upon running into the future at break-neck speed that any glance into the past could lead to a disastrous fall. I will have you know that they are running with scissors.” [Bubba, commenting on The Real Estate Secrets Buried Around Market Square] Illustration: Lulu
Given the cities history and foundation upon volatile energy cycles I surely hope that this is incorrect.
While growth is occurring throughout the city, that growth (from a purchasing / development perspective) has tapered over the past 18 months. What we are seeing currently is that product becoming available, which should lead to a decrease in demand and further tapering. To not look back would lead to an inflated market, I hope we all remember this.
Full House_Joey “Cut it out”.gif
As someone who lived here through the boom-bust cycle of the 1980s, I agree with Bubba. I can only hope history won’t repeat itself. However, Houston’s breakneck development in 2014 sure looks a lot like 1984, and we all know how that turned out. Once you build a 500-unit apartment complex (or two, or three) in a neighborhood, there’s no going back…and large complexes are the first to bear the brunt of economic downturns. Greenspoint, anyone?
I too agree with Buba. People who didn’t live here through the 80’s and fail to recognize the volitility of the O&G industry are a little naive. The danger here is that, just like the 80’s, most of the growth is coming from the O&G industry. Many could argue that other areas are also growing, such as industry and health care. Both of those are responding to this growth, and will indeed contract when O&G does. Houston’s attitude of living for the now, (I wouldn’t agree at all that it is future focused), bit it in the a** once and unfortunatly will again. The O&G industry has never been one to be stable. No idea how long this current boom will last, but we would be better off not exceeding (or even meeting) demand for the short and long term future of the city and region. I know, it will never happen.
Running with scissors indeed. The more things change the more they stay the same.
There is no foreseeable reason that oil prices will not remain high or at least stable. There were a myriad of geopolitical reasons that oil crashed in the 80’s one of which was the Kingdom’s desire (in cahoots with the US) to defund the USSR’s oil cash cow. Currently Saudi Arabia knows it needs to keep prices high to maintain political status quo and OPEC has learned its lessons. Oil demand around the world has never been higher and there is no reason to expect that to fall significantly. In short, sleep easy.
@Old Yeller. True, but no two economic crises are alike. The forces that cause the energy crisis of the 1980s may not be around today, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing else lying under the surface, ready to expose itself and tank our local economy.
Economies are cyclical. Boom and Bust. If I might borrow a line from the movie Wall Street: “Quick buck artists come and go with every bull market. But the steady players make it through the bear markets.” Houston is a City of Quick Buck Artists that come and go with the economy. Of course we’re running too fast to look back. When times are good, we’re running to get here. When times are bad, we’re running away.
This might sound like a critique, but it’s really not. Houston has the same sort of energy that, I imagine, New York and Chicago did a century ago, it’s incredibly exciting.
“The forces that cause the energy crisis of the 1980s may not be around today, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing else lying under the surface, ready to expose itself and tank our local economy.”
I dare you to name one that makes sense.