COMMENT OF THE DAY: SHOW ME THE DEALS! “I would like to ask you to show us how right you are by pointing me to some properties inside the Loop that could be purchased for 2005 prices. I have buyers. Really ready finance-able buyers. Of course, you had better send me a lot, or my buyers will bid your properties up to a price past 2005 prices in a heartbeat. So, let me at them. I am ready. I search the market constantly, and would love to present these ‘2005’ deals to my buyers, but I am not seeing them. . . .” [Harold Mandell, commenting on Popping That “No Housing Bubble in Houston†Myth]
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Unfortunately, selling a home in a bad market is like the stages of dying; the sellers go through those stages, til they finally hit acceptance that they have to lower the price. Much of Houston has not gotten to that stage yet because it was insulated by the oil bubble. I see a lot more single family houses for rent inside the loop these days. That’s close to the last stage.
BINGO, Harold. Show me COMPS, not stats. Comparable sales dictate market prices. If someone wants to make a case for dropping prices, show me a recent actual sale comp inside the loop that is substantially cheaper than a similar property sold a year or two ago. Then I might believe. Until then, I’ll trust my own insticts.
My neighbor (two doors down) put their home in the market four months ago at what I thought was a relatively high asking price. Job transfer. They had to sell. It was under contract in two days and sold for 99% of asking price. They walked away with a nice profit from their purchase price only a few years earlier.
A builder dropping his overinflated asking price is not proof of dropping prices. An overpriced home that won’t sell is not proof of dropping prices.
COMPS.
COMPS.
COMPS.
The rest in noise.
It’s simply supply and demand. Look at this chart with inventory figures:
http://www.westurealestate.com/marketWatchAllAreasSummary.htm
You see a lot of red. But note that this analysis assumes a Buyer’s market does not start until a 12 month supply, when the usual convention is a 6 months supply. If this Realtor used a standard definition of a Buyer’s market, virtually all of the inner loop across most price points would be a strong buyer’s market.
My neighbor (two doors down) put their home in the market four months ago at what I thought was a relatively high asking price. Job transfer. They had to sell. It was under contract in two days and sold for 99% of asking price. They walked away with a nice profit from their purchase price only a few years earlier.
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It depends on the house itself. If it’s a “tract house” then it depends on what the “comps” are. But of course “comps” are the sales figures in MLS. And those are not always reliable. It also depends on the buyer. A buyer from Los Angeles who is being transferred here is of course going to think anything is a steal. All sorts of factors at work. Sometimes, again, it’s just a matter of a fool not knowing better. Or a house that really is just so incredible that the buyer would pay double for it just because they really like it.
Some people still do buy a house simply because they like it and envision themselves sitting on the porch in 50 years. Not because of what it might be worth in 50 years.
This is most definitely not a buyer’s market in Inner Loop. But it is a buyer beware market.
i think one of the problems is that 4 months ago is not now. in those 4 months almost no homes have sold in southampton, river oaks and west u. look in the greenwood king report someone posted here on swamplot a few weeks ago. so any “comps” are stale and old.
It depends on the house itself. If it’s a “tract house†then it depends on what the “comps†are. But of course “comps†are the sales figures in MLS. And those are not always reliable. It also depends on the buyer. A buyer from Los Angeles who is being transferred here is of course going to think anything is a steal. All sorts of factors at work. Sometimes, again, it’s just a matter of a fool not knowing better. Or a house that really is just so incredible that the buyer would pay double for it just because they really like it.
Some people still do buy a house simply because they like it and envision themselves sitting on the porch in 50 years. Not because of what it might be worth in 50 years.
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Are you just making this up as you go along?
I have seen the most absurd list of excuses in your posts.
Please explain to all of us why the MLS data is not accurate.
http://www.marketlinx.com/solutions/mls_data_checker/mls_data_checker.asp
there is software on the market to try to fix:
Late entry of new listings
Failure to enter listings in the MLS
Entry of listings by a non-MLS member
Active listings without a valid agreement
Inaccurate listing status
Misuse of list price excludes
Wrong property classification
Misuse of agent remarks
Misuse of financial remarks
Misuse of public remarks
Misuse of data with the intent to mislead
Duplicate listing by the same broker/agent
Inappropriate image and virtual tour links
Inaccurate selling information
Conditional offers of compensation
Late reporting of pending sales
Late reporting of final sales
And much more!
and relisting is a big problem:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/realestateadviser/20080302_MLS_DOM_a1.asp
(although if i was trying to sell my own house….and it wasnt moving….)
That’s fascinating and all…but HAR uses that technology in their Tempo system already.
I’m addressing the sales data.
What reason do you have to believe that the sales data in inaccurate?
and relisting is a big problem:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/ne…..DOM_a1.asp
(although if i was trying to sell my own house….and it wasnt moving….)
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This does occur but any agent can easily pull up the actual listing date of a property. This big “*” symbol next to the DOM is a big give away.
I find that it’s a stupid practice and ends up casting more attention on the DOM figure than would otherwise be the case.
You are correct that this could potentially skew average days on market figures.
thats good news, i am glad HAR scrubs the data with something and fines agents for mis entering.
Are you just making this up as you go along?
I have seen the most absurd list of excuses in your posts.
Please explain to all of us why the MLS data is not accurate.
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I’ve had a real estate license since 1987. As for MLS data it is dependent upon the Realtors entering the correct information. Someone has to notify MLS that the information is incorrect. And the selling brokers usually don’t report incorrect information reported by the listing broker. Not the smart ones anyway. Honor among thieves as they say.
I’ve had a real estate license since 1987. As for MLS data it is dependent upon the Realtors entering the correct information. Someone has to notify MLS that the information is incorrect. And the selling brokers usually don’t report incorrect information reported by the listing broker. Not the smart ones anyway. Honor among thieves as they say.
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I guess that makes you an expert then.
So you’re proposing that agents are simply lying about the data they enter…and the selling agent’s never notice or care?
What would be the motivation for this? Do you really think an agent is going to risk their license to pad their MLS stats?
Anyway, I just wanted to point out some inaccuracies in your post. Feel free to continue spreading misinformation throughout the blog.
So you’re proposing that agents are simply lying about the data they enter…and the selling agent’s never notice or care?
What would be the motivation for this? Do you really think an agent is going to risk their license to pad their MLS stats?
Anyway, I just wanted to point out some inaccuracies in your post. Feel free to continue spreading misinformation throughout the blog.
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The motivation is to keep the comps up to indicate a stable market with little devaluation. Many sellers don’t care. Most buyers don’t care either. HCAD is aware of the selling price. They just don’t make the sale price available to the public. The buyer of course protests the subsequent appraisal if HCAD doesn’t make the adjustment itself. Which it usually doesn’t. Selling agents only care about the commission. Showing a house sold for $250,000 when it only sold for $200,000 guarantees a little more commission on the homes that are comped at $250,000 instead of $200,000. And commmissions are all any agent cares about.
You want to talk about ethics? Ask TREC how many complaints are filed each year against Realtors in Texas. Just because they don’t act on most of them doesn’t mean there is no basis to them. It usualy means the Realtor has an attorney. And TREC for some reason doesn’t like messing with attorneys.
I doubt TREC would revoke someone’s license over an “error” on MLS. Occasionally I’m sure someone reports the “error” and I’m also sure it’s blamed on an assistant who was in a hurry.
right….between all the lying real estate agents and distressed “pocket sales” I imagine houston real estate is doomed.
If the real estate agents are so corrupt now, what makes anyone think they weren’t as corrupt 3, 4, or 5 years ago?
It seems to me that whether a house is bought by a fool, a buyer from out of market, or just an inaccurate sale listing, it’s still a sale and can be fairly compared to other similar houses in the area. Besides, not ALL agents are posting bad numbers so a comparison of numerous houses should still balance out and give you an idea of what the prices are doing.
right….between all the lying real estate agents and distressed “pocket sales†I imagine houston real estate is doomed.
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Not doomed. Just overvalued in some areas.
It’s all about the house.
Just out of curiosity Matt, how do you know about all these sales that are being misreported? Do you have any evidence of it or is this just some conspiracy theory you’ve hatched?
If you do have proof of this rampant price inflation, I would think it’s your duty as a licensed agent to report it to TREC.
Otherwise you’re just some blowhard on a blog.