Price Trends

Buying and Selling
02/25/09 11:35am

All Quiet on the Upper Katy Corridor

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Katy, Price Trends, West Houston
6 Comments

“What I see on my bike rides,” writes 2-wheeled real-estate observer Lou Minatti, “is that construction has ground to a halt in Katy.” A few more louminating observations on the cycles of West Houston real estate:

The main upscale neighborhoods in the Houston metro area lie between downtown Houston and Katy, in the corridor south of I-10 and north of Westheimer/FM1093. Houston residents know what I am talking about. That narrow 30 mile x 8 mile corridor contains the trendy new “lofts” near downtown, expensive new condo towers in the Galleria area, River Oaks, Memorial, the Villages and Cinco Ranch. . . .

Me? I live north of I-10, the crappy side. It was a nice quiet place when we moved out here in 1995. It’s still an OK place, no real problems. But property values have been flat since 2000. The houses on this side of the freeway are between $100k-$150k. Here’s the thing: Long-time readers here have seen my videos and have seen the inventory and foreclosures from my bike tours. The new houses in these videos [both featured in this Swamplot post from last fall] have all been sold, and this is AFTER the shady lending was stopped. I did a video update three weeks ago [above] and didn’t post it on YouTube because there’s almost nothing on the market! In my subdivision of 900 houses there are two houses for sale and one foreclosure. That’s it.

CONTINUE READING THIS STORY

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Buying and Selling
02/25/09 9:52am

Houston Real Estate Sales Volume: Off the Charts!

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Forecasts, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
7 Comments

A reader writes in to poke fun at a few “awfully massaged” charts included in last week’s monthly MLS report from the Houston Association of Realtors, calling them “the unintended consequences of crazy average-it-all-together-to-create-a-veneer-of-stability reporting”:

….the latest monthly sales numbers for single family and condo/townhomes are ACTUALLY OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE CHARTS!!

HAR’s sales-volume charts show 12-month moving averages, but even that isn’t enough to keep the latest numbers from dropping through the floor:

The unintentional comedy arises from the fact that the latest values very prominently highlighted in the boxes (2,827 & 203) are well below the scale on either of these sales volume graphs. . . .

It also reveals WAAY TO MUCH data smoothing on their part which calls into question their credibility. Their charts convey almost no information -on purpose.

Okay, but if you’ve got any actual information to share, break it to us gently, please:

CONTINUE READING THIS STORY

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Apartments
01/12/09 1:10pm

Houston Apartments: More Value for Your Rupee

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Price Trends, Quicklink, Tanglewood
3 Comments

HOUSTON APARTMENTS: MORE VALUE FOR YOUR RUPEE A quick back-of-the-air-mail-envelope real estate comparison of greater Tanglewood and Colaba, a commercial district in South Mumbai: “My friends house was about 2 blocks away from Nariman house – the sight of the infamous siege on the Jewish community on 26/11. For a 600 sq ft 1 bedroom hall kitchen, my friend and his room mates were coughing up Rs 45,000 /- a month. My friend corrected me that the real rent is actually Rs 50,000 / month but he is getting a discount because of some renovation going on in the building. Judging by the fortune he paid for the apartment, you would imagine it to be an ocean facing villa with modern amenities like swimming pool, gym and manicured garderns. Horror behold! His apartment was actually in a very busy market area, in a dilapidated building which was probably more than 40 years old and might come down any minute. Once inside his compact apartment, I immediately started comparing this with my $700/ month (Rs 34,000 month), 800 sq ft 1 BHK in Houston in a very wealthy neighborhood. If Senior Bush could live a mile away from my apartment, I am sure my neighborhood must be really good! So even if I earn in rupees, it is much easier for me to afford a place in Houston than in Mumbai!!” [Continued Unnoticed]

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Forecasts
12/01/08 2:45pm

Las Vegas to Houston: What Are the Odds?

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Homebuying, Houston Data, Price Trends, Quicklink
6 Comments

LAS VEGAS TO HOUSTON: WHAT ARE THE ODDS? A Swamplot reader requests a long hard look at the Houston housing market crystal ball: “Do any ‘experts’ lurking among Swamplot’s readership have any thoughts on long-term residential price trends in Houston? Me and the missus were trying to sell our home in Vegas (good house, great neighborhood, bad timing). Now we will be holding on to it until the Vegas market starts coming back — whenever that is. I’m trying to get an idea on what prices could look like when we finally have the funds to buy locally (6 months – 1 year, depending). Any info or sites that might help us answer those questions would be greatly appreciated.” [Swamplot inbox]

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Financing
10/01/08 5:52pm

The Financial Crisis: Kinda Like Flooding in Meyerland

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Flooding, Houston History, Meyerland, Price Trends, Quicklink
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THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: KINDA LIKE FLOODING IN MEYERLAND A rising tide sinks all prices! “When Dr. Mahmoud Amin El-Gamal, chairman of the Rice economics department, is asked — as he has often been in recent days — ‘What’s is going on with our financial institutions?’ he likes to begin his answer with an analogy of local origin. ‘It’s a lot like in the 1980s when the flooding in Meyerland caused the price of all the houses in the area to go down,’ he said, ‘even those houses that did not flood.’ El-Gamal said the same can be said of mortgage securities, many of which were ‘perfectly fine,’ but had been grouped with debts that would likely continue to go unpaid.” [West University Examiner]

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Houston Data
07/16/08 11:59am

HAR Monthlies: Sales Down, Prices Up

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Price Trends, Quicklink
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HAR MONTHLIES: SALES DOWN, PRICES UP “Of 41 Houston-area regions tracked by the Houston Association of Realtors, sales of single-family homes in June were up in seven and down in 34 from a year earlier. The median home price was up in 18 of the 41 regions. The median home price overall in the Houston area was $162,000, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier.” [Houston Chronicle]

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Buying and Selling
02/07/08 11:30am

Mattress Mack: A Consistent Record of Slashing Prices

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Homes for Sale, Northgate Forest, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
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The McIngvale Home at 3002 Pine Lake Trail, Northgate Forest

We now have the scoop and an update on Gallery Furniture owner Jim McIngvale’s mansion in Northgate Forest, and it’s a doozy. Yes, it’s still on the market. Yes, the price has been cut. But didja know the extent of the damage?

When last we left the Mattress Mack Pad, it was still soaring at $1.25 million. Well, now it’s down to . . . $885,000. Here’s the timeline:

  • May 5, 2007: 3002 Pine Lake Trail goes on market for $1,750,000
  • July 5, 2007: Price reduced to $1,499,000 — saving you 14%!
  • September 4, 2007: Price reduced to $1,250,000 — saving you 17%!
  • October 15, 2007: Price reduced to $975,000 — saving you 22%!
  • November 13, 2007: Price reduced to $885,000 — saving you 9%!

Total savings overall: Almost 50% . . . if you buy now!

And here comes the Houston real estate cliche: You can take the mansion way out of the Loop, but you can’t take the “way out of the Loop” out of the mansion.

Or something like that.

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Buying and Selling
01/07/08 10:56am

Katy, Texas: At $210K, Still Cheaper than East L.A.

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Homebuying, Homes for Sale, Katy, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
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Pool and Lake at 24315 Lanning Dr., Katy, Texas

Honey, stop the car! 2300 square feet, new construction, in-ground pool, spa, game room, on a man-made fake lake. $209k. Bonus: The Relitter actually typed in “HONEY STOP THE CAR!!” as a description.

That’s blogger Lou Minatti’s punchline, after a brief tour of tiny, chain-linked-fenced, or apparently leaning homes available at similar prices in Los Angeles.

Also in the description of the Katy home is this paradox:

POPULAR LENNAR FLOORPLAN! . . . A ONE OF A KIND GEM!

After the jump: more pics, plus the sad news about this some-of-a-kind Katy home.

CONTINUE READING THIS STORY

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Homebuying
11/21/07 10:27am

The Clearest Sign of Trouble in the Houston Housing Market

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Housing Data, Houston Data, Price Trends, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Marketing
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Map Graphic from HoustonFacts.orgSure, there’s the latest numbers out from the Houston Association of Realtors, showing a continuing decline in home sales in October, an 8 percent upswing in the average number of days homes have sat on the market, and a slight drop in the median home price compared to this time last year.

But the most blatant sign that serious problems in Houston housing have already arrived is the new promotional blitz just unleashed by the Greater Houston Builders Association — telling us all not to panic: Everything’s just rosy in the wonderful world of Houston residential real estate. Hey, everybody back in the water!

The PR push, which includes a blanketing of radio and TV spots in local markets, is designed to reassure nervous would-be buyers that now’s the perfect time to buy a home way out on the latest subdivision frontier, even though lots of scary signs have been suggesting otherwise for quite a few months now. The heart of the homebuilders’ campaign is the ominous-sounding HoustonFacts.org website, which fills Houston homebuyers’ ears with fact-filled, sage advice like this:

If you try to wait and time the market until it hits rock bottom, you are likely to lose out. Just as no one can accurately predict the peaks and valleys of the stock market (name one person who sold their tech portfolio in April of 2000), the same holds true for housing. If you sit on the fence and wait for the absolute best deal, you could end up literally waiting for years. And most likely, your guess on market timing would be wrong. But if you choose to buy now, you will not only be in the driver’s seat during the buying process, you will also reap the gains of price appreciation once you become a home owner. Remember, those who purchased homes in the early 1990s during the last big economic and housing downturn came out as big winners.

There’s lots more of this kind of wisdom available on the site, but here’s a special challenge to eagle-eyed Swamplot readers: See if you can find the comparison of a home investment to a stock-market investment on the site that simplifies all those messy calculations by leaving out the cost of monthly mortgage payments and expenses!

Keep reading for a HoustonFacts.org tip on home foundations for the Houston climate!

CONTINUE READING THIS STORY

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Buying and Selling
09/05/07 10:59am

Mattress Mack Saves You Money

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Homes for Sale, Northgate Forest, Price Trends, Real Estate Marketing
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Mattress Mack's Home at 3002 Pine Lake Trail in Northgage Forest

Speaking of fame and real-estate listings, we may have an answer to our earlier question about the power of endorsements by celebrities—or local celebrities—to sell houses quickly and at a premium price.

The Northgate Forest estate of Gallery Furniture owner Jim McIngvale—written up here a month ago—is still listed for sale! And the asking price has dropped a quarter of a million dollars.

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Forecasts
05/09/07 7:30am

Smith to Homebuilders: Whoa!

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New Construction: Residential, Price Trends
No Comments

Houston’s housing market will slow, UH economist Barton Smith told homebuilders, real-estate agents, and a Chronicle reporter at his annual spring symposium:

Smith cautioned builders that this area is not immune to the national housing market correction just because housing remains affordable and fixed-rate mortgages are still low.

A national crackdown on subprime loans because of increasing foreclosures will significantly shrink the number of households that qualify for homeownership.

Combined with interest rates that are slightly higher today than two years ago, Smith estimates that the reduction in subprime lending will eliminate nearly 100,000 Houston households from the owner-occupied home market.

On the other hand, real estate experts have seen an uptick in sales of higher-priced homes.

“You’re just seeing the high end of the market going wild,” said Mark Woodroof of Prudential Gary Greene, Realtors.

More than ever before, builders are creating homes valued in excess of $500,000 in places other than the silk-stocking neighborhoods where they’re traditionally found.

“Today, they’re in The Woodlands, Fort Bend, and it’s not because prices are skyrocketing, but because we’re building bigger, more luxurious homes,” Smith said.

Of course, it’s difficult to compare last year’s prices to this year’s—because the house that sold last year is in the landfill, and the new one that replaced it is three times the size. In Houston, that’s your growth in the residential market. So maybe Dr. Smith’s just calling for a little less Foyer.

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Price Trends
04/23/07 8:50am

Money is Big on Texas

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No Comments

Texas boasts six of the top 12 residential real-estate markets in the country, says Money magazine. Houston is ranked number 12, behind San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth/Arlington (yeah, they broke them out), El Paso, and that southern juggernaut McAllen. They predict a 3.2 percent increase in home prices here over the next year.

Money’s handy chart gently reminds readers of the 9.6% drop between 1984 and ’85, but it includes another statistic that suggests any downturn here won’t be as catastrophic as it might in Los Angeles, for example: the median mortgage here is only 15 percent of a homeowner’s income. In L.A., that figure is 57 percent.

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Price Trends
04/19/07 8:30am

Appraisal District: You Look Fabulous!

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No Comments

Harris County homeowners might worry that the nationwide downturn in the real-estate market will ultimately affect the prices they can get for their homes, but HCAD says there’s no problem: Things are looking up! To prove it, the agency has raised property-tax assessments an average of seven percent this year. How’s that for a vote of confidence?

Sounds even more flattering than the Chronicle, which comes off sounding insufficiently boosterish. Their survey last week declared that home prices in 2006 had risen an average of only 4.3 percent in the greater Houston area.

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Homebuying
04/16/07 8:22am

Good Morning, Houston! Here’s Your Donut

by
Housing Data, Houston Data, Price Trends
No Comments

Some highlights from the Chronicle‘s annual housing-price survey extravaganza, published Sunday:

  • Yeah, prices were up again last year, growing steadily since 1992 (a good year to start with if you’d rather forget Houston’s big busts). But price increases slowed down in the second half.
  • Anyone needing proof that Houston is still a donut need only glance at this map of sales activity inside and around the Loop and Beltway. We love that creamy filling as much as anyone, but there’s more dough to be made at the edges (eighty percent of sales are outside Beltway 8).
  • The front-page graphic, which at first glance appears to show steeper historical price growth for inside-the-loop homes (and a better rate for them this year), is a little misleading: Except for last year, average percentage price increases since 2001 have been highest outside the loop.

As usual, specifics on last year’s neighborhood price trends are hidden in the Chronicle‘s Homefront section.

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