OAK FOREST: NEW WEST U OR MINI BELLAIRE? The Chronicle is out with its annual survey of area home prices. Sadly, this year’s online version doesn’t allow easy cost-per-square-foot comparisons, leaving Houstonians who like to build and buy their residences in bulk without much to oooh and aah over. Consolation: The accompanying neighborhood profiles include a peek at the controversy that’s apparently been raging through Oak Forest: “‘I call it the new West University,’ said Jason Light, owner of the Light Group, a local real estate firm active in the Inner Loop area. . . . Marlene Casares and her husband, Jalin Casares, looked all over town before settling on Oak Forest, she said. A year ago they bought a new 4,300-square-foot home. . . . ‘It’s like a little mini Bellaire, but with better prices,’ she said.” [Houston Chronicle]
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Home Prices
COMMENT OF THE DAY: ARE YOU ALL SHORT-TIMERS HERE? “I have often wondered… Why is there such a collective push towards “improving property valueâ€? I think it’s a terrible thing! My preference is for the value of my property to stabilize. I don’t want it to fall, because it would make the neighborhood as a whole lose value and therefore invite blight; but I don’t want it to rise either, because I will simply have to pay more taxes on it. The only reason for anyone to hope for their property value to rise is because they would prefer to sell it. In my opinion, that’s not a sustainable model, because the only ones that benefit from it are the ones that do not want to keep the house long-term. That’s how you end up with sub-par quality ‘houses’ built by seedy developers. Am I off base?” [Alex, commenting on Where Houston’s Lot-Size Restrictions Went, Year by Year]
PRICE DROPS ARE UP! Been noticing more local home sellers slashing prices? It’s not just that HAR listings now highlight them: Real estate website Trulia notes that one-quarter of all homes it tracks in the Houston market (mostly through MLS) dropped their asking prices over the last year. That’s 32 percent more price cuts than for the previous year-long period, and qualifies Houston as one of the top 5 cities Trulia follows where asking-price reductions have been on the upswing. The average price cut here: 9 percent. [Trulia, via Houston Business Journal]
COMMENT OF THE DAY: LOT SIZE AND THE ROAD TO DEMOLITION 
“. . . The owners of the above pictured house realized a LONG time ago that the value of their 10,000 SF lot was the same with or without the existing structure. THAT is the point when maintaining the structure becomes uneconomical. THAT is when repairs stop. THAT is the starting point on the path to real decay and eventual demolition.
Interestingly, the economics of a townhouse give their owners MORE incentive to keep up with repairs. Their ratio of structure-value to land-value is higher meaning that going forward they should have MORE economic incentive to keep their structures maintained.
Even a $100,000 structural repair on a townhouse on a 1,800 SF lot isn’t likely to push it into teardown status. Making the repair is still economically rational. You’d be far less likely to affect a similar repair on a single family home on 5,000 SF lot in the same neighborood.” [Bernard, commenting on Up and Down in Hyde Park] Photo of former property at 1212 Hyde Park Blvd.: fortbendtomontrose
COMMENT OF THE DAY: ISLANDS OF VALUE “I have come to believe that what is nearby means nothing at all to a lot of people. The Heights just east of Shepherd was, just a few years ago, mostly shotgun shacks and run down rentals. That stopped nobody from building half million dollar plus homes. Now- that doesn’t mean this place isn’t overpriced – a comp is a comp. I’m just saying that there are apparently many people who love being the castle surrounded by the serfs.” [finness, commenting on Swamplot Price Adjuster: Brookesmith in the 200s]
COMMENT OF THE DAY: 77019 FIXER UPPERS “I have a property in the 77019 area. I am undecided on what to do with it. I expect the property value is in the land rather then house in this instance above. $525K sounds about the going rate in that area for the house above. For the land alone my house sits on I could easily take half a million for it. It raises real questions, since anything I did to the property would not add to its value, if that makes sense. Just recently for instance I noticed that Croix are building on a lot which previously had a fabulous little bungalow on, which was in excellent condition and well restored, sadly Croix demolished it because the value was in the land itself. Sadly also the seller looks to have let it go for less than the land was worth. The house value becomes confusing in the whole value thing. I’ve noticed that builders even the ‘build on your own lot’ people are reluctant to help, give any advice, or take on the work – they want the land, it’s as simple as that. Rather than give it to those people I will probably end up restoring the property and living in it, but whatever is spent on it, it will not add anything to the value of the property which is a sad thing.” [David, commenting on Redo, Rinse, Repeat: Brun Bungalow, Makeover Magnet]
COMMENT OF THE DAY: THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN “TO ANYONE WHO CARES – THE HOUSE HAS SOLD FOR $415K. NOT quite what we were hoping, but clearly the original poster, who claimed this should be priced in the mid 300Ks, is rather mistaken.” [Justin, commenting on Swamplot Price Adjuster: Your Cherryhurst Neighbors]
The Swamplot Price Adjuster needs your nominations! Found a property you think is poorly priced? Send an email to Swamplot, and be sure to include a link to the listing or photos. Tell us about the property, and explain why you think it deserves a price adjustment. Then tell us what you think a better price would be. Unless requested otherwise, all submissions to the Swamplot Price Adjuster will be kept anonymous.
Location: 1206 Hyde Park Blvd., Hyde Park, Montrose
Details: 3-4 bedrooms, 3 1/2 baths; 3,680 sq. ft. on a 10,100-sq.-ft. lot
Price: $1,199,999 [corrected from before]
History: On the market for 7 weeks
All the fine furnishings in this 1920 Montrose mansion didn’t sway the Swamplot reader who nominated the property:
“River Oaks living in Montrose”? Certainly River Oaks pricing in Montrose!
Given the location, the neighborhood, and the house itself the HCAD appraisal of almost $700k seems excessive. . . .
This house was sold in 2004 per HCAD, and the 2005 valuation was $563k – my guess is that is very close to the sale price.
The 2009 valuation of the house is about $700k. All the neighboring houses are about $300k in value. The neighborhood average is well under $200/sq ft (a beautiful house, fully restored . . . on Harold recently sold for about $200/ft on a similar sized lot)
And a better price for this property would be . . . ?
The Swamplot Price Adjuster needs your nominations! Found a property you think is poorly priced? Send an email to Swamplot, and be sure to include a link to the listing or photos. Tell us about the property, and explain why you think it deserves a price adjustment. Then tell us what you think a better price would be. Unless requested otherwise, all submissions to the Swamplot Price Adjuster will be kept anonymous.
Location: 301 E. 10th St., Houston Heights
Details: 2 bedrooms, 2 baths; 1800 sq. ft. on an 8,200-sq.-ft. lot
Price: $600,000
History: On the market for 6 weeks.
A reader thinks this property is overpriced:
. . . even if it is lot price at 8,200 sq ft – listed for $600K it’s about double the price – I’ve seen 10,000 sq ft lots go for $325,000 (May 09). For a lot in the Heights it’s too high – yes it’s a corner lot – but there are no curbs on the street and it’s right near a church. To keep the house for a “conversion” as suggested would be too high as the house doesn’t even have central air or heat.
What would be a better price?
The Swamplot Price Adjuster needs your nominations! Found a property you think is poorly priced? Send an email to Swamplot, and be sure to include a link to the listing or photos. Tell us about the property, and explain why you think it deserves a price adjustment. Then tell us what you think a better price would be. Unless requested otherwise, all submissions to the Swamplot Price Adjuster will be kept anonymous.
Location: 3122 Mona Lee Ln., Binglewood
Details: 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths; 3,894 sq. ft. on a 10,018-sq.-ft. lot
Price: $234,500
History: On the market since mid-September
This person who’s nominating this home writes:
Binglewood? Binglewhere? Wherever it is, this is a great neighborhood to walk in. As my spouse and I have strolled past this house over the years, we’ve called it The White Elephant. It’s a charming elephant from the front, but it’s been way over-improved for the neighborhood. Before the large addition, it was a 3 bedroom, 2 bath and was probably around 1700 square feet. Now it’s a 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, and almost 3900 square feet. Almost no one else in the neighborhood has added on. The addition at the back is quite graceless, the pool won’t add any value, and the entire rest of the back yard is concrete.
There is no cache to living in this neighborhood. When we moved in, more than one person said to us: “Oh, Spring Branch. That area used to be nice.” We love it here, but are under no illusion that other people will. The school district is great, but the neighborhood is zoned to Edgewood, Northbrook and Northbrook – not the best in the district. (Snark aside, our kids loved Edgewood Elementary, but didn’t want to go to Northbrook Middle and High. It was their choice to go elsewhere.)
So what about a better price for this home?
HAR is out with its September home-sales figures, giving Swamplot’s spreadsheet-side correspondent a chance to eulogize the spring-summer selling season:
Home prices and volumes are flying south for the winter. With this volume downturn for the year, we have most likely seen the highs and sales volumes will now complete their third year of contraction. Prices were down 2-3% in the month, depending on whether you follow the median price or the average price. Pending sales are well below sales for the month, suggesting a further seasonal contraction in October.
This month featured an upturn in foreclosure sales as a percentage of the total. Foreclosure sales were 18.6% up from 16.7% the prior month. Luckily, foreclosure sales are still way down from the 32% peak in January.
But aren’t all those foreclosures going away soon?
COMMENT OF THE DAY: THE TOWNHOME EFFECT “A lot of people would think twice with the townhome next door, I know I did. Cherryhurst is a nice area but has evidently let whatever deed restrictions it had slide. This will hurt prices there in the long run as older homes are replaced with townhomes. Apart from the aesthetic, which is subjective, great neighborhoods aren’t build round townhomes. It probably already has hurt this seller.” [sidegate, commenting on Swamplot Price Adjuster: Your Cherryhurst Neighbors]
COMMENT OF THE DAY: WHAT’S IT WORTH TO YOU? “. . . Personally, I think that dollar-per-square foot calculations have a value slightly above worthless but well below useful. Nor do I think that ‘comps’ are particularly meaningful. Obviously, others do not think the same. Regardless, if the seller can get what they want for the property, so be it. It probably won’t affect me, at least in the short term, in the slightest. . . . Heck, I think that most real estate (whether here in Houston or elsewhere) is vastly overpriced, and that the market has a long way to fall before housing prices become more reasonable in relation to household earnings.” [Random Poster, commenting on Swamplot Price Adjuster: Your Cherryhurst Neighbors]
The Swamplot Price Adjuster needs your nominations! Found a property you think is poorly priced? Send an email to Swamplot, and be sure to include a link to the listing or photos. Tell us about the property, and explain why you think it deserves a price adjustment. Then tell us what you think a better price would be. Unless requested otherwise, all submissions to the Swamplot Price Adjuster will be kept anonymous.
Location: 1617 Fairview St., Cherryhurst
Details: 3-4 bedrooms, 2 baths; 1,810 sq. ft. on a 5,000-sq.-ft. lot
Price: $475,000
History: On the market for almost a month and a half.
Note: We now have a response from the seller! See updates below.
The reader who nominated this expanded bungalow on Fairview likes the place, but . . .
What’s not evident from the photos are the basic problems with this house at this asking price:
[First, it’s ] across the street from Wilson Elementary. Not such a bad thing if you have kids who might attend Wilson, but otherwise a drag. School buses have a tendency to idle in front of the property. Noise and trash coming from, well, kids. Every Saturday and Sunday morning, year in and year out, a litany of soccer matches, volleyball tournaments, Frisbee “flag footballâ€, etc. emit a constant din. You know, just what you want when you’d like to sleep in a bit.
Some opinions about the home’s other immediate neighbors, too:
The townhomes aren’t that big of deal other than the residents can peer into your backyard and house. But, the house to the east is a nightmare. . . . Overgrown yard, house falling in on itself. Great for Boo Radley’s house. I can imagine prospective buyers looking at the thing next door and immediately saying, “Nope.â€
So . . . what might be a better price?
COMMENT OF THE DAY: THE AGE OF APPRECIATION “[In] my humble observances, I have noticed that the new construction only maintains plateau value or loses it while the older homes in the area gain. Sure, many homes may be sold for lot value, but if you buy a 60 year old home vs a 5-10 year old home, the difference is relative. (See low-end River Oaks, West U, Bellaire, Heights, Braeswood, etc). In the Heights, the kept-up bungalows outpace the new-builds (on a square-footage basis) by far. They also sell in a few days (with many offers) vs months.” [justguessin, commenting on Swamplot Price Adjuster: $2 Million Plus In Town]